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NBC counting on swimmer

NEW YORK - NBC’s Olympic ratings fortunes and ad sales bounty are riding in part on the broad shoulders of a 23-year-old swimmer who will be going for a record eight gold medals.

If Michael Phelps can strike gold on eight successive nights in prime time beginning today, then NBC will have mined a storyline that it hopes will guarantee a ratings medal. The network has spent a lot of time building up the fortunes of Phelps and the U.S. women’s gymnastic team, the two brightest lights for the U.S. entering the Games. If Phelps — who won six gold medals in Athens in 2004 — falters, it could be a long 17 days.

Friday’s opening of the Games of the XXIX Olympiad in Beijing was the culmination of years of hard work for NBC Sports. NBC Universal has a huge investment; it spent nearly $900 million in rights fees, and on the eve of the Games it has sold more than $1 billion in advertising. That’s record revenue for NBC Universal.

But NBC counts several things going in its favour. The buzz has been growing in recent weeks, buoyed by good ratings in prime time for the U.S. Olympic trials. The controversy surrounding the Olympic torch and host country China in general doesn’t seem to be affecting intent to view. And with the way the economy is going, many believe that the United States is looking for something to cheer about.

“You have a lot of positive buzz,” one ad buyer said. “If we see some early success from the Americans, that’s a good sign. I think the country’s looking for something to rally behind.”

Even if the Phelps and gymnastics storylines don’t pan out, all hope isn’t lost for NBC. The network is nimble enough to move toward excitement and trains its producers to look for emerging drama so that a midcourse correction might help it. At the 1984 Winter Olympics, for instance, ABC’s plans to highlight the U.S. hockey team were scrapped when it was clear early on that it wasn’t 1980 again.

NBC Sports & Olympics chairman Dick Ebersol successfully lobbied to have the start times for key events in swimming, gymnastics and beach volleyball start live in U.S. prime time, which hasn’t happened since Atlanta hosted the 1996 Games.

“That’s the first time that three of the five biggest sports in the Summer Olympics are essentially all happening simultaneously on American television,” Ebersol told the Hollywood Reporter last week.

Phelps’ prime-time swims are especially good fortune for NBC.

“It’s almost like divine intervention that it worked out that way,” Ebersol said. “And when you add to that our women’s gymnastics team is the best we’ve ever sent to a Games and they are rivalled by the Chinese, it’s going to be a fierce fight.”

Brad Adgate, head of research for New York-based ad buyer Horizon Media, said the proof will be in the gold.

“A lot of it is going to be how well the athletes perform,” he said. “Michael Phelps, the gymnastics team, basketball. A lot of it is the live sports. It’s really the world’s greatest reality show.”

© The Windsor Star 2008

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