Apple started selling the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus in 20 additional countries on Friday. I checked a dozen of Apple’s websites (five of the original ten countries launched on September 19 and seven of the new countries) yesterday and today to see if the lead-times for the new countries that were posted on Friday held since they were better than the ten countries that started selling the new iPhones on September 19.
Every few days I have been tracking the lead-times for Apple’s iPhone 6 and 6 Plus similar to what I did starting with the iPhone 4S. I do this via Apple’s websites, Verizon, AT&T and Sprint and three Vodafone sites and have created a Google Doc to keep track of all my lead-time observations.
It looks like the 5-7 business day lead-times for the iPhone 6 Plus that were posted on the new countries websites Friday were more of a placeholder than an indication of supply. On Friday the lead-times for the 6 Plus on Apple’s Austria, Denmark, Finland, Italy and Spain websites went from 5-7 business days to 3-4 weeks. Turkey’s 6 Plus lead-times increased from 2-3 weeks to match the 3-4 weeks and Taiwan started at 3-4 weeks. The 3-4 week lead-times match what Apple’s US and UK websites (and I believe the other countries websites) have been since the day Apple launched the iPhone 6s on September 19.
The lead-times for the iPhone 6 in the first wave countries have been at 7-10 business days since the first weekend. Five of Apple’s new country websites that I checked started the 6’s lead-times at 5-7 business days and have held at that on Saturday. Turkey’s lead-times started at 2-3 weeks and have also stayed the same. Taiwan’s are at 7-10 business days, which match the first wave countries.
The iPhone 6 has seen a nice uptick as a percentage of total iPhones in use by both Fiksu and MixPanel starting on Friday when Apple started selling iPhone 6’s in the 20 additional countries. As can be seen in the difference in percentages (Fiksu has the iPhone 6 at 2.65% of iPhones in use and MixPanel at 4.13% on Saturday) there is a lot of variability to the data. While it may be useful to try and calculate how many iPhones Apple has sold based on it there are a number of variables that can lead to a wide range of results.
MixPanel’s and Fiksu’s data show similar results on the ratio of iPhone 6s to 6 Plus’s in use. MixPanel has the percentage of 6’s in use at 4.14% and 6 Plus’s at 0.71% for a ratio of 5.8. Fiksu’s has the percentage of 6’s in use at 2.65% and 6 Plus’s at 0.54% for a ratio of 4.9x.